Leading together builds resilience in a world where uncertainty is a constant
Strategy isn’t only about foresight; it’s about building trusted partnerships that can withstand the unexpected.
New Zealand’s public–private relationship has frayed over the last decade, leaving the current level of collaboration wholly inadequate to meet the demands of today’s geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty.
The path forward requires innovation, investment, and an “all-of-NZ” approach. Executives have a critical role to play in championing unified agendas, building forums for dialogue, and inviting government into existing initiatives. The question now is: are today’s leaders (both public and private) prepared to invest political and commercial capital into rebuilding collaboration?
Why does this matter now?
The pressures facing leaders are intensifying. Economic headwinds, technological disruption, and geopolitical instability are colliding in ways that test both business and government. On top of all that New Zealand is now struggling to shake off recession, which has only deepened the need for innovation, despite New Zealand’s chronic underinvestment in R&D.
Yet rather than facing these challenges together, too often we see parallel efforts: government designing policy in isolation, and business advancing initiatives without public partners at the table. The result is predictable: duplication of effort, slower responses, and missed opportunities for resilience and growth.
New Zealand’s major industries remain globally competitive, with agri-tech and aerospace engineering standing out as areas of real strength. These sectors have already shown their ability to reach into international markets, building relationships and test new ground abroad.
But too often these efforts happen in isolation. Government has been slow to link with industry leaders to strengthen and scale their international push. For a small nation, building early relationships between the public and private sector, and with key trading partners overseas, is critical. These foundations will be invaluable to any future trade and investment strategy.
There are signals of a shift. On 9 May 2025, Prime Minister Chris Luxon called for an “all of NZ” response to encourage investment into India. This demonstrates a desire to build closer collaboration with the private sector, after years of under-engagement. The question is whether this intent can be converted into consistent action, and whether business leaders will step forward to match it.
For a small, open economy like New Zealand, the cost of fragmentation is magnified. We cannot afford to face the future alone.
The confidence-constraint tension
The ANZ Business Outlook survey shows just how quickly sentiment can shift. After plunging deep into negative territory during the pandemic years, business confidence recovered strongly, peaking at over +60 in late 2024. Since then, the trend has softened, settling into the high 40s by mid-2025.
The message is clear: confidence has returned, but it is fragile. Businesses see reasons for optimism, but ongoing cost pressures and hiring challenges mean their ability to act is constrained. Confidence alone does not translate into resilience. It needs the right conditions to turn into investment, innovation, and growth.
There is of course far more nuance in the full ANZ survey: sector-by-sector shifts, inflation expectations, hiring intentions, and investment appetite. Each of these offers useful insight. But the headline confidence score, measured monthly, acts as a valuable canary in the coalmine. It distils the pulse of sentiment into a single number suggesting whether firms believe conditions are improving or deteriorating. Because it moves quickly with outlook, it provides an early warning signal worth paying attention to.
For a small, open economy like New Zealand, conditions to enable resilience and growth cannot be created by the private sector alone. Public–private collaboration is the missing link. Government has the tools to provide policy certainty, co-fund skills development, and open doors in international markets. Businesses bring agility, capital, and on-the-ground expertise. Only together can optimism be converted into lasting resilience.
What can leaders do tomorrow?
Industry leaders cannot wait for government to initiate collaboration and close the gap. Four small moves to start working on tomorrow:
Champion a unified industry agenda: call two or three peer executives this week to agree on one shared priority for innovation that you can all raise consistently with government.
Test one assumption with your leadership team: Ask: “what are we assuming the Government will do here, and what happens if they don’t?
Add one government voice to your next industry roundtable: personally invite government leaders into executive-led initiatives, signalling openness and commitment to joint problem-solving.
The bigger picture
With these small moves in mind, we also challenge you to consider the following question at your next leadership meeting:
· If New Zealand faces its next systemic shock tomorrow, what joint capabilities will you wish had been built today?
We can’t wait to continue the kōrero with you in our next ‘Moves that Matter’